

The Framingham Risk Analysis
The Framingham Study has led to the development of a simple questionnaire that evaluates one's average risk - the probability of getting CHD in the next 10 years. It includes questions about age (more important than cholesterol), the total cholesterol level, the LDL level, (or HDL and LDL), blood pressure, having diabetes, and smoking. An online calculator that can do this for you can be found at the site of the American Heart Association. The Framingham site notes that:
Users of this risk algorithm should be aware of several caveats:
- The risk estimating score sheets are only for persons without known heart
disease.
- The Framingham Heart Study risk algorithm encompasses only coronary heart
disease, not other heart and vascular diseases.
- The Framingham Heart Study population is almost all Caucasian. The Framingham
risk algorithm may not fit other populations quite as well.
- For some of the sex-age groups in Framingham, the numbers of events are quite
small. Therefore, the estimates of risk for those groups may lack precision.
- Other organizations are considering how the information from the Framingham
risk algorithm, as well as other assessments of risk, might best be incorporated
into clinical practice. As new information and guidelines become available,
they will be added.
- The Framingham risk score estimates the risk of developing CHD within a 10-year
time period. This risk score may not adequately reflect the long-term or lifetime
CHD risk of young adults, which is: one in two for men and one in three for
women.
- The presence of any CHD risk factor requires appropriate attention because
a single risk factor may confer a high risk for CHD in the long run, even if
the 10-year risk does not appear to be high.
- Since age is a prominent determinant of the CHD risk score, the 10-year hazards
of CHD are, on average, high in older persons. This may over-identify candidates
for aggressive interventions. Relative risk estimates (risk in comparison with
low risk individuals) may be more useful than absolute risk estimates in the
elderly.
- The score derived from this algorithm should not be
used in place of a medical examination.
Source: Wilson PWF, D'Agostino RB, Levy D, Belanger AM, Silbershatz
H, Kannel WB. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories.
Circulation 1998;97:1837-1847.
[Abstract]
[Article]
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Last Modification - July 11, 2004